As 2007 heads into its traditionally high-quality final month, the Oscar® season officially takes off. With nominations set to be announced bright and early on January 22nd, there is roughly a month and a half for films to gain traction or lose steam.

Online awards prognosticators, including myself, have been speculating for months about possible year-end hits. We are able to make general speculations based on a variety of things, including the talent involved, release dates, film festival reactions and personal preferences. However, when it comes down to it, these predictions amount to little more than baseless sport for film buffs until awards groups start to announce at year’s end.

On December 5, the biggest aid yet in year-end prognosticating came in the form of the National Board of Review’s (NBR) awards. The NBR is the first major awards group to announce their winners each year, and although they are often times too random to be of much help, they are still celebrated as the beginning of justifiable awards predicting.

And with that, I move on to address my goal in writing this: an Oscar® preview column.  Aside from money-making (the chief motivator for everything these days, right?), the Academy Awards are the pinnacle of film accomplishment. By exploring each of the key categories, not only will I (hopefully) boost my own ego as I look back at these columns two months from now and point out the one prediction I did get correct, but you will also get a more studied and particular look at this year’s films. Seeing as this is the first week, it only seems fitting that I start off big. Agreed? Thought so. That said, this week I will be taking a look at the most competitive and prestigious Oscar® category – Best Picture.

No Country for Old Men, Joel and Ethan Coen’s newest film, picked up the Best Film award from the NBR this week. “No Country” has also received some of the highest reviews of the year from critics nationwide, including 96% positive reviews according to RottenTomatoes.com. The film also delivers as a comeback of sorts for the Coens, and if there is something the Academy (AMPAS) loves, it is a return to form. However, the film could also be considered too violent for Academy tastes, with a large percentage of members adhering to an old-fashioned Hollywood ideal. The ending of the film has also drawn a lot of backlash for reasons that those of you who have seen the film will understand.

Sweeney Todd, the newest Johnny Depp-Tim Burton collaboration has also received a boost thanks to the NBR. While its many detractors were breeding a certain apprehension surrounding its awards chances, the film was named one of the top 10 films of the year, while the NBR also named Tim Burton as Best Director of the year for the film. While this Broadway adaptation is even bloodier than “No Country,” the nature of this film (a dark comedy-musical) will result in something more appealing and easier to stomach for many.

On the art film front, there are a few films in competition. Sean Penn’s Into the Wild is receiving lots of attention. AMPAS loves an actor-turned-director, and this film has good reviews to give it a boost.  The Diving Bell and the Butterfly is another film garnering outstanding reviews. NBR named this French flick Best Foreign Film.  While AMPAS is usually less accepting of foreign films, “Diving Bell,” directed by American artist-turned-filmmaker Julian Schnabel (“Before Night Falls”), is an uplifting true story (a favorite Oscar® motif) about “French Elle” editor Jean-Dominique Bauby who suffered a debilitating stroke before dictating his autobiography by blinking his eye (the one part of his body left not paralyzed).

Literary adaptations also feature prominently in this year’s race. The Kite Runner has been getting a lot of attention as another uplifting film, but the film’s foreign dialects, unknown actors, and mixed early reviews are foreboding. There Will Be Blood, P.T. Anderson’s (“Boogie Nights,” “Magnolia”) latest film, has been called a masterpiece by some and an ambitious misfire by others. Some have compared this epic tale, based on the novel “Oil!” by Upton Sinclair, to “Citizen Kane,” while others have written it off as an overly long snooze-fest. However divisive the film may be, though, the Oscars® voting system is based as much on passion for films as respectful admiration. Still yet, Atonement has turned into this year’s frontrunner. Based on Ian McEwan’s novel of the same name, the film is epic in scope and utilizes themes of war, romance, guilt, and redemption. If that isn’t Oscar® bait, I don’t know what is.

Juno is this year’s stock comedy to beat in the race. The seemingly simple plot focuses on a teenage girl (Ellen Page) dealing with an unwanted pregnancy. The upside? The script is said to be written with razor-sharp wit and humor by newcomer Diablo Cody, a former stripper turned scribe. American Gangster features two big stars, an appealing story, and great production values; however, many view the film as good, but a disappointment compared to what it could have been. Then again, never underestimate big names and solid films when it comes to year-end awards.

Michael Clayton features an NBR-winning performance by star George Clooney and has received high marks across the board. While many see the film as a throwback to 70s-style thrillers, others find this less gripping than a nomination-worthy film needs to be. Charlie Wilson’s War might feature the biggest names in the business this year. Starring Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts, “Enchanted’s” Amy Adams, and indie star Philip Seymour Hoffman, this film features comedy, drugs, politics, and war. After recent screenings, however, many are claiming the film is simply not Best Picture quality or style. Too bad.

Other long-shots? Once, the independent Irish musical, is also one of the year’s critical darlings, but is probably too small. Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead is said to be more of an actor’s showcase. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford would probably take too long to say if it were nominated. The Savages, despite rave reviews, will probably end up being too small and too bleak for AMPAS tastes. Hairspray lacks the passionate following of many of these other films. I’m Not There will be too unique for the Academy. Anything else finds its  way into the race, and I will be surprised. Then again, its Oscar® season. So, in other words, its likely.

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