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MC’s political science professor looks ahead to Super Tuesday

Release Date: February 5, 2008

Image of Tobias Gibson.

Tobias Gibson

[print-quality version]

MONMOUTH, Ill. Monmouth College political science professor Tobias Gibson is happy to talk about any and all of the issues relating to the 2008 presidential election.

Just don’t ask him who will win.

"I’m not in the prediction-making business," he told WRAM’s Dan Stasi during a Friday morning radio interview in advance of next week’s Super Tuesday primary event. "I want to steer clear of that."

However, Gibson conceded, "I do think Illinois is a lock for (Barack) Obama."

Gibson noted that the other Democratic Party frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, "has turned her eyes askance from Illinois since she graduated from high school in Chicago. Her circumstances have been a part of that she went to Yale, and then she moved on to Arkansas, to Washington, D.C., and now New York."

Gibson used a pop culture reference to indicate where Clinton’s heart lies, citing her pledge of allegiance to the New York Yankees, rather than her hometown Chicago Cubs.

"She never made it a point to come back and celebrate Chicago victories," he added.

While Gibson said that California, with its 441 Democratic delegates up for grabs, is a key state to watch on Tuesday, he also believes the outcome in a state a little closer to home will be interesting.

"I’ll be keeping an eye on Missouri. Here’s why: First, it’s a traditional swing state, and it now has Republic and Democratic senators. Also and a special nod to some of my ‘Introduction to American Politics’ students who brought this to my attention Missouri is one of the best predictors of presidents. It has gone for 25 of the last 26 presidents."

Gibson said he will also be watching the southern states.

"Clinton spent a great deal of time in Arkansas, of course, and Obama is an African-American who just won South Carolina. With Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia and Alabama up for grabs, it will be interesting to see the outcome in those states, as well."

As a professor specializing in American politics, Gibson said he is more interested by what the 2008 presidential campaign means to future campaigns than in trying to forecast a winner. For example, he alluded to Republican candidate Ron Paul’s early successes on the Internet and noted that Howard Dean had a similar experience in 2004.

"The Internet can’t be ignored, but those candidates have proved that success is more about name recognition and having a campaign on the ground that is skillfully put together," he said. "John McCain has a built-in advantage because of his 2000 campaign. He knows what he did well, and he knows what he did wrong. He’s been able to build on that."

Though not entirely discounting GOP hopeful Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucus, Gibson said, "While Iowa likes to present itself as important, success in Iowa is not an especially good predictor of electoral success."

Asked the pros and cons of the 2008 race, Gibson replied, "I like the new faces. Everyone expected Hillary to run for some time now. McCain ran in 2000 and (John) Edwards) ran in 2004, but I like that Paul, Obama and Huckabee are making real inroads in their parties."

As for the negative, he said, "I don’t like the money at stake. Obama just made major news for clearing $32 million. There is still talk about (Mitt) Romney dropping his fortune into the race. The idea that anyone can grow up to be president is, and always has been, in question. That said, the possible, if not probable, success of Clinton or Obama would clear a major hurdle, no matter how much money they rake in."

Of the wide-open race among the "final four" candidates Clinton, Obama, McCain and Romney Gibson said, "It’s good for America; it’s good for the candidates and their parties. If there was one clear candidate by this time, there would no longer be any debates or discussion. Any controversy lies in a trap and comes out before the November election, much like what happened to John Kerry with the Swift Boat sailors."

He concluded, "I think that the candidate who eventually emerges from these four will be living proof that what doesn’t kill you only makes you stronger."

Released by the Office of College Communications
Barry McNamara, Associate Director of College Communications
Phone: 309-457-2117
Fax: 309-457-2330

 
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