Bronze Turkey game down, ‘waiting game’ next for Scots

Release Date: November 8, 2004

MONMOUTH, Ill. — As the Fighting Scots bask in the glory of their decisive Bronze Turkey Game victory over Knox, which put the wraps on a 9-1 regular season, they are also looking ahead to a possible invitation to football’s “big dance” – the NCAA tournament.

The common thinking entering last weekend was that Monmouth needed to win the MWC title, as too many games needed to go in the Scots’ favor for them to gain one of the NCAA’s precious few at-large berths.

Although the one game that influenced Monmouth’s chances the most – Lake Forest at St. Norbert – did not go the Scots’ way, enough other contests ended in upset losses by contenders that the Scots at least have a seat at the table in the playoff talks.

In fact, Monmouth was one of four teams listed as a choice on the following poll question on d3football.com: “Who should get that third Pool C slot now?”

In the middle of last week, the Web site predicted that Mary Hardin-Baylor (the nation’s eighth-ranked team), a CCIW team and The College of New Jersey (TCNJ) would gain the three at-large berths. Also comprising the 28-team field are 21 conference champs who receive automatic berths (Pool A) and four independents and/or teams from conferences whose champion does not automatically qualify (Pool B).

TCNJ, however, suffered a 41-0 setback, and several other possible at-large contenders also fell. Monmouth is now listed with three other schools – No. 13 Christopher Newport, No. 15 Ohio Northern and No. 27 St. Thomas – as having the best chance to gain the third Pool C slot, assuming Mary Hardin-Baylor and the CCIW runner-up (either No. 18 Carthage or No. 14 Wheaton) gain the other two.

So what, exactly, does Monmouth need to have happen? A loss for Mary Hardin-Baylor would be nice, but is unlikely. Also fairly unlikely is Carthage stumbling against Elmhurst. A huge result in the Scots’ favor, though, would be St. Thomas falling to St. John’s. What are the chances? Well, the Johnnies ARE the defending national champions in Division III, even though they bring only a 6-3 record into the game, which will be played on the Johnnies’ home turf in Collegeville, Minn.

If St. Thomas loses, Monmouth’s 9-1 record would be the best mark of all the teams hoping for the third Pool C spot. Since the selection committee could give the nod to an 8-2 team it perceives is more worthy, Monmouth is also hoping for some strong two-loss teams to fall a third time, such as Ohio Northern (against Marietta) and Christopher Newport (against Ferrum).

One final factor is the strength of schedule formula. The math for that element is only slightly less confusing than the BCS, but there are two things we know: 1) Monmouth is currently ranked 14th in the nation in that category out of 216 teams and 2) the Scots’ rank can improve if Beloit and Ripon, two teams that Monmouth defeated on the road, each win their regular season finales on Saturday against Grinnell and Knox, respectively.

Besides strength of schedule, the NCAA also uses win-loss percentage against regional opponents, in-region results vs. common opponents and in-region results vs. regionally-ranked teams as some of its at-large criteria.

Approximately two dozen games around the nation will have some impact on what the committee ultimately decides. The Scots figure to at least need St. Thomas, Carthage or Mary Hardin-Baylor to fall, and if a select handful of the other games can go their way, too, Monmouth just might have an extra football game on its schedule Nov. 20.

Against who?

Sorry, that’s a whole other subject.

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